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Russia concerned with US, EU interference in internal affairs of Belarus, says Lavrov | Source: TASS

Russia is concerned with the continual brazen interference of the United States and the European Union in the internal affairs of Belarus, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. After the presidential elections in Belarus in August 2020, a number of European countries and the US did not recognize the election results and deemed that the actions of Belarusian law enforcement against protesters were excessive. Against this background, the West has repeatedly imposed sanctions and other restrictions aimed at Belarus.

Source: TASS


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Gazprom cuts gas to EU via Belarus by 70 percent | Source: EU Observer

Russian firm Gazprom is continuing to reduce gas supplies to Europe via Belarus, potentially aggravating tense market conditions. The new figures come after supplies via the Yamal pipeline, which runs from Russia via Belarus to Poland, fell by half last week. Analysts, such as US investment bank Goldman Sachs, have said the Yamal cuts could lead to higher gas prices in winter.

Source: EU Observer


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Putin and Lukašenko ready to launch new Russian-Belarusian union | Source: Asia News

Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukašenko and his “big brother” Vladimir Putin are ready to launch the long-awaited union between Russia and Belarus. The agreements will permit the formation of a single gas and fuel market. Belarus (a buffer country between Russia and Western Europe, close to the Baltic States) has always purchased Russian oil and fuels at a low price, without export taxes, importing about 23 million tons of fuels each year.

Source: Asia News


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Russia, Belarus Start Joint Military Drills | Source: The Defense Post

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and his Belarus’ counterpart Alexander Lukashenko walk in as they attend a session of the Supreme State Council of the Union State at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 3, 2015.

Russia and Belarus kickstarted massive joint military drills on the EU’s border, closely monitored by NATO as tensions between Belarus and its western neighbors rise. The drills come a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin and his increasingly isolated Belarusian ally Alexander Lukashenko said they agreed to deepen the integration of their ex-Soviet countries, including in areas of defense.

Source: The Defense Post


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Poland is transferring troops to Belarusian border to stop illegal migration | Source: Remix

Several hundred soldiers will be directed to the Polish-Belarusian border in the upcoming days to ensure its security against increasingly common attempts to illegally enter Polish territory. The migrants are transported from Minsk to the border with Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland with the full permission of Belarusian authorities.

Source: Remix


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Belarus Regime to Get $1 Billion from IMF, Undermining U.S. Push | Source: Bloomberg

Belarus’s authoritarian regime, weighed down by sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European Union, is set to get an almost $1 billion lifeline from the International Monetary Fund. That’s happening despite calls for the IMF to cut off President Alexander Lukashenko’s government following Western accusations of fraud in last year’s election and his brutal repression of protests that followed.

Source: Bloomberg


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Unexpected Trouble In The Three Seas States Might Cause Them To Rethink Their Policies

Unexpected Trouble In The Three Seas States Might Cause Them To Rethink Their Policies

12 AUGUST 2021

Unexpected Trouble In The Three Seas States Might Cause Them To Rethink Their Policies

Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland – the top “Three Seas Initiative” states most active in the US-backed Hybrid War on Belarus – are experiencing some unexpected trouble at home and along their frontiers with that former Soviet Republic which might cause them to rethink their aggressive policies against Minsk for pragmatism’s sake.

Recent developments might compel the “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland into backing off from the active role that they play in the US-backed Hybrid War on Belarus. Each of them has suddenly experienced some unexpected trouble either at home and/or along their frontiers with that former Soviet Republic. All three of them are struggling in their response to the surge in illegal immigration coming from their shared neighbor, which Minsk denies is being weaponized by its leadership as an unconventional response to their pressure upon it but which nevertheless seems to at the very least be “passively facilitated” by it. Furthermore, Lithuania and Poland recently saw some large-scale protests in response to contentious domestic policies, all the while the Color Revolution in Belarus continues to peter out into practically nothing.

Vilnius saw some chaos outside its parliament earlier in the week due to its people’s fury at the authorities’ plans to legally discriminate against non-vaccinated citizens. Meanwhile, Warsaw and several other Polish cities saw demonstrations against the government’s media reform bill which has drawn the ire of the country’s nominal American and German allies. That development also resulted in the governing coalition fraying after the sacking of a Deputy Prime Minister and subsequent withdrawal of his party from that selfsame coalition due to their opposition to that policy. Furthermore, Poland just submitted to the EU’s “financial imperialism”. All of this coincided with Belarusian President Lukashenko signaling a “phased leadership transition” in the coming future and detained anti-government blogger Protasevich admitting that the coup against him failed.

With each of these four countries caught up in their own domestic crises, it’s therefore sensible that Lukashenko extended an olive branch to his 3SI opponents and in particular Poland with the hope that they’d accept so that everyone can then focus more on resolving their more pressing problems at home. It’s unclear whether this attempt at a so-called “non-aggression pact” will bear any fruit, but it’s a welcome development in any case. It also puts the onus on those three countries over whether or not to continue escalating regional tensions like Minsk accused Vilnius of recently doing along their shared border. The argument can be made that some of those countries, especially little Lithuania, have a self-interested desire in provoking a regional crisis in order to sabotage the US’ efforts to broker its own “non-aggression pact” with Russia and focus more on China.

Be that as it may, it’s veritably in their national interests to seriously consider Belarus’ olive branch. Latvia and Lithuania are disproportionately affected by the regional migration crisis coming from Belarus due to their small populations. Lithuania also has to confront the unexpectedly violent resistance to its COVID-19 policies on top of whatever unconventional response China might undertake following Vilnius’ decision to host a de facto so-called “Taiwanese embassy” as part of its ploy to become the US’ top regional partner. Poland is under even more pressure than both of its 3SI allies combined since it must confront the intensifying US-German Hybrid War against its ruling conservative-nationalist party. Warsaw is in no position to continue waging a US-backed proxy war against Belarus, especially since Washington is waging its own against Warsaw right now.

The 3SI-driven perpetuation of the US-backed Hybrid War on Belarus is a waste of time and money for the three vanguard states involved. They’re now paying unexpected costs along their border and in terms of the associated social instability that their failure to deal with this regional migration crisis might entail. Protasevich’s admission that the coup against Lukahsnko failed should be the final nail in the coffin of that regime change campaign. Keeping it going only drains those three 3SI states of resources that would be better invested at home during these increasingly unstable times. In particular, it distracts the Polish security services from dealing with the more urgent task of thwarting the US-German Hybrid War. Gray Cardinal Kaczynski should have hopefully realized by now that fighting this proxy war won’t protect Poland from the US’ latest plots against it.

The best-case scenario is that Poland pragmatically accepts Belarus’ olive branch even if it doesn’t publicly make too much of a fuss about it for “face-saving” reasons. That would take the wind out of Latvia’s and Lithuania’s regime change sails and encourage them to follow suit. They still might not do so though if they’ve riskily gambled that their subjectively defined national interests are best advanced by continuing that campaign at the US’ behest, but Poland’s increasingly less prominent participation in it, if not eventual abandonment of its “active measures”, would greatly neutralize its effectiveness. What’s most important is that aspiring regional hegemon Poland reconsiders its policies in this respect. Even piecemeal progress on this front could have a positive effect on the region and bolster Poland’s defenses against the US-German Hybrid War at home.

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By Andrew Korybko

American political analyst

Tags: Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Belarus, Three Seas Initiative, US, Russia, Germany, Illegal Immigration, Hybrid War, Color Revolution, Regime Change.


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Belarus Calls on US to Reduce Staff at Embassy in Minsk to Five Members | Source: Fars News

The Belarusian Foreign Ministry has proposed that the United States should cut the staff numbers at its embassy in Minsk to five people. “Against the backdrop of Washington’s steps aimed at reducing cooperation in all areas and at the economic strangulation of our country, we quite objectively do not see any point in the presence of so many staff members at the US diplomatic mission in Belarus,” read the statement released.

Source: Fars News


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New Barrier to Rise in Europe’s East Amid Tensions With Belarus | Source: Bloomberg

Lithuania will decide on whether to build a 508-kilometer (316-mile) long fence on its border with Belarus to stop an unprecedented wave of migrants pouring into the European Union’s east. The arrivals are part of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s strategy to retaliate against EU sanctions against his government over his crackdown against pro-democratic opposition, Lithuanian officials said.

Source: Bloomberg


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U.S. takes fresh actions against Belarus | Source: Prensa Latina

US President Joe Biden signed an executive order imposing new measures aimed at punishing Belarus, a year after Washington and Western countries classified Belarus´ elections as fraudulent. President Alexander Lukashenko was reelected in August, 2020, reaching up over 80% of votes, but most Western nations refuse to recognize his victory.

Source: Prensa Latina


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