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central asia

Tajikistan undertakes actions that lead to escalation of tensions on border, Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry says | Source: AKI Press

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan expressed protest against illegal actions of Tajikistan after containers were put up and a significant amount of military personnel and military vehicles were deployed in undelimited border zone in Unzhu-Bulak area of Chon Alay district of Osh region.

Source: AKI Press


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#9| GGN News on Geopolitics and Geoeconomics: Weekly Top 10.(From May 14 to May 20, 2021)

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central asia

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Agree To Joint Security Controls Along Disputed Border | SOURCE: RFERL

Kyrgyz soldiers guard a water supply facility outside the village of Kok-Tash near the Kyrgyz-Tajik border.

Kyrgyz and Tajik officials have agreed to jointly control along a disputed segment of the border to ease tensions following deadly clashes late last month. The situation is particularly complicated near the numerous exclaves in the volatile Ferghana Valley, where the borders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan meet.

SOURCE: RFERL


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Geopolitical conflicts

Eurasia

EURASIA

  • CHINA- KYRGYZSTAN: China is willing to strengthen strategic coordination with Kyrgyzstan in regional and international affairs, and warned it´s oppose to any external forces interfering in Kyrgyzstan’s internal affairs. Kyrgyzstan, for its part, will continue to fully support China on issues related to the country’s core interests such as Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and separatism.

SOURCE: BELT AND ROAD NEWS

 

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Geopolitical conflicts

Central Asia

CENTRAL ASIA

  • KYRGYZSTAN: Kyrgyzstan´s political instability (protests erupted following Kyrgyzstan’s disputed election) could affect the relationship between these countries with external actors, mainly Russia and China, experts warned. They also warned that if political or social instability spread through Central Asia “the strategic, energy, political and security interest of China and Russia will be affected, especially the regional security architecture, which is based on Russia as a security provider. China, because of its Belt and Road corridor in the region.

SOURCE: IWPR

 

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Geopolitical conflicts

Eurasia

EURASIA

  • RUSSIA AND PARTNERS: Russian President Vladimir Putin has said -during an online summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization– “attempts to exert foreign pressure” in Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Moldova are “unacceptable.” Regarding Belarus, he assured they are experiencing unprecedented pressure, stand against sanctions and provocations unleashed on them through an information and propaganda war.

SOURCE: RFERL ORG

 

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Expert Analysis

Why Wasn’t There Any Post-Election Turmoil In Tajikistan?

Why Wasn’t There Any Post-Election Turmoil In Tajikistan?

16 OCTOBER 2020

Why Wasn

Unlike fellow former Soviet Republics Belarus and even neighboring Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan’s latest elections didn’t result in any turmoil even though one might have expected it to have due to some similarly discernible risk factors, but that wasn’t the case (at least not yet) for five primary reasons.

Tajikistan’s latest elections came and went without any turmoil unlike the recent ones in fellow former Soviet Republics Belarus and even neighboring Kyrgyzstan, the first of which is now in the midst of an ever-intensifying Color Revolution while the latter just experienced a successful regime change operation which led to the president’s resignation. Some observers expected Tajikistan to follow in their footsteps, especially since it has some similarly discernible risk factors such as a long-serving ruler, an impoverished population (even before the onset of World War C), and a history of internationally criticized election results (to put it mildly). The very fact that this wasn’t the case, however (at least not yet), can be attributed to five primary factors:

* Lucid Memories Of The Former Civil War Deter Regime Change Scenarios

Tajikistan’s former civil war from 1992-1997 was a complex conflict with regional, clan, and religious dimensions. It’s estimated to have killed at least 65,000 people and internally displaced 20% of the population. President Rahmon, who first took office at the beginning of the conflict, still rules the country to this day. Although some members of the population might still be unhappy with him or eventually became fatigued after his nearly three-decade-long rule, they all remember what a tragedy the civil war was and few want to risk doing anything that could repeat it, such as unleashing a Color Revolution or returning to anti-state militancy.

* Afghanistan’s ISIS-K Threat Reminds Everyone Why Stability Is So Important

Even among those “well-intended” members of society who might silently wish for profound political change, they’re keenly aware of the ISIS-K terrorist threat in neighboring Afghanistan. In the event that Tajikistan is destabilized because of post-electoral unrest, the world’s most notorious terrorist group might be able to more easily exploit events in order to establish a territorial foothold in Central Asia. Lucid memories of the former civil war already act as a powerful regime change deterrent for many, but for the most “passionate” among them who might still clamor for change, then the threat of ISIS-K might deter all but the most radical “activists”.

* The “Islamic Renaissance Party” Is Banned & Foreign-Linked NGOs Are Regulated

The “Islamic Renaissance Party” (IRP) played a key role supporting the opposition during the civil war and resultantly earned the right to be legalized as the only such Islamist party in the region after the conflict ended. It was once again banned five years ago and subsequently linked to several terrorist attacks in the country. Some Westerners argue that banning it radicalizes its members, but one can also argue that the IRP was already becoming a front for radical goals. Tajikistan’s regulation of foreign-linked NGOs complemented its crackdown on the IRP by reducing external influence over its domestic political processes, thus stabilizing the state.

* Tajikistan’s “Strongman” System Keeps Regional & Clan Conflicts Under Control

Objectively speaking, Tajikistan’s contemporary politics are a textbook example of a “strongman” system. President Rahmon has thus far succeeded in keeping regional and clan conflicts under control unlike neighboring Kyrgyzstan which jettisoned its “strongman” model after its Color Revolutions in 2005 and 2010. As can now be seen, so-called “democratic” Kyrgyzstan (as described by its many NGOs’ Western patrons) is much more unstable than “strongman” Tajikistan, which vindicates many of the controversial moves that President Rahmon made during his time in office. To his credit, he’s kept the peace for almost a quarter of a century.

* Russian Intelligence Likely Has Greater Freedom To Thwart Hybrid War Threats

Tajikistan is Russia’s first line of defense from Afghan-emanating Hybrid War threats, both those related to ISIS terrorism and also the “Weapons of Mass Migration” which might be driven from the Central Asian region to the Eurasian Great Power due to the first-mentioned trigger factor. It’s likely a lot easier for Russian intelligence to thwart these threats by cooperating real closely with its political allies within a “strongman” system compared to a “democratic” one like in Kyrgyzstan. It therefore can’t be ruled out that Russia played a leading role behind the scenes in ensuring that there wasn’t any post-election turmoil in Tajikistan.

——————–

The five primary factors that were elaborated upon above help explain why Tajikistan didn’t become destabilized after its latest election unlike Belarus and Kyrgyzstan. That said, instability might eventually erupt in the country if the younger generation has little to no memory of the civil war and becomes politically and/or religiously radicalized through the internet. It’s difficult for a faraway observer such as the author to measure those variables, though they mustn’t be discounted in principle since they represent latent threats that could spiral out of control if left unchecked. One should assume that there are domestic and external forces interested in exploiting them, but the speculated role that Russian intelligence plays in securing the country’s political stability should hopefully suffice for ensuring that no such dark scenarios transpire anytime soon.

Tags: Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Russia, Central Asia, Regime Change, Hybrid War.

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By Andrew Korybko

American political analyst


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Anti-Goverment Protests

Thailand

THAILAND

  • Bangkok saw its fourth large-scale protest in as many months. Tens of thousands began demonstrating gathering at the Democracy Monument before marching toward Government House. Protests clashed with pro-monarchy demonstrators gathered close by. Thousands of protesters were still occupying the roads, despite a newly issued state of emergency declaration by the government banning gatherings of more than four people.

SOURCE: THE DIPLOMAT

 

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Anti-Goverment Protests

Kyrgyzstan

KYRGYZSTAN

  • Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov resigned, saying he wanted to prevent clashes between security forces and protesters who have demanded his removal, after days of unrest following a disputed election. It was not immediately clear who would take control of the country, a Russian ally which considers the former Soviet space its sphere of influence.

SOURCE: THE GLOBE AND MAIL

 

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Belt And Road Initiative

Central Asia

CENTRAL ASIA

  • Analysts say it could be a long time before Chinese investors are confident about doing business in Kyrgyzstan, where political uncertainty has made it one of the least attractive partners in its Belt and Road Initiative (a parliamentary election on October 4 triggered mass protests and the occupation of the parliament building amid allegations of vote rigging).  Among the Chinese targets, protesters tried to occupy a Chinese-owned oil refinery.

SOURCE: SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

 

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