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Moscow Sent A Strong Signal To India By Condemning The Quad As Anti-Russian

Moscow Sent A Strong Signal To India By Condemning The Quad As Anti-Russian

22 SEPTEMBER 2021

Moscow Sent A Strong Signal To India By Condemning The Quad As Anti-Russian

India doesn’t have any anti-Russian intentions and is even remaining loyal to its S-400 air defense deal with Moscow despite Washington’s sanctions threats. Nevertheless, Patrushev considers the bloc that it’s part of to be a regionally destabilizing force whose overall impact negatively affects Russian interests.

Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev condemned the Quad as anti-Russian in a recent interview. He also described it as “an Asian NATO prototype” that pursues anti-Chinese policies too. This was a strong signal to India, which joined that emerging US-led military alliance due to its members’ shared intent to contain China. India doesn’t have any anti-Russian intentions though and is even remaining loyal to its S-400 air defense deal with Moscow despite Washington’s sanctions threats. Nevertheless, Patrushev considers the bloc that it’s part of to be a regionally destabilizing force whose overall impact negatively affects Russian interests.

The timing of his remarks is also significant since it comes ahead of the Quad’s first-ever in-person summit on 24 September. Patrushev is also probably aware of how uncomfortable India has become after being left out of the new Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) trilateral military alliance. New Delhi shares those countries desire to contain China and thought that it could play a leading role in this respect only to be kept in the dark during this bloc’s secret negotiation process. With this in mind, Patrushev is hoping to encourage his country’s special and privileged strategic partner to reconsider its participation in such US-led attempts.

The ideal scenario would be for Moscow to mediate a rapprochement between New Delhi and Beijing, though that might not happen due to their deep differences over sensitive issues. These include their disputed frontier, India’s controversial revocation of Article 370 in August 2019, its subsequent publication of a map laying claim to Chinese-administered Aksai Chin, warmongering comments from its officials, and New Delhi’s last-minute decision to remain outside of last year’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), among many others. Even Russia’s world-class diplomats can’t realistically bridge all of these very serious differences.

Rather, the most practical outcome that Russia likely hopes for is that India will reach an unofficial “non-aggression pact” with China for responsibly managing these disputes across an extended period of time. During the interim, they can seek to “normalize” their relations as much as they can considering these unresolved issues. The path to this scenario is only possible if India no longer attempts to militarily contain China in the aggressive way that it’s thus far done through the US-led Quad. By continuing to do so, it risks destabilizing Eurasia and therefore worsening the overall strategic situation for Russia.

Patrushev doesn’t expect the Chinese-Indian rivalry to disappear overnight, which is why Russia aspires to remain the South Asian state’s top military partner in order to help it balance the People’s Republic. In practice, this takes the form of their trusted military cooperation on sensitive technologies such as the S-400 deal and their joint collaboration on the Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles which they plan to export to the Philippines and potentially other regional countries that are in fierce territorial disputes with China. If countries like India are going to keep balancing China, then Russia prefers for them to receive relevant wares from it, not the US.

The reason for this is that Russia’s “military diplomacy” seeks to maintain the balance of power between its various partners, quite a few of whom are rivals of one another such as Armenia & Azerbaijan, China & India, China & Vietnam, and Iran & Saudi Arabia. By contrast, the US seeks to tip the balance of power in favor of its preferred partner with the expectation that this will encourage them to behave aggressively against their rival. The American method of “military diplomacy” is therefore aggressively intentioned and aims to dangerously disrupt regional balances whereas the Russian method is predicated on defense and retaining such balances.

India can therefore responsibly manage its rivalry with China by relying more on Russia than on the West. Continuing to participate in the Quad will only worsen Eurasia’s US-provoked security crisis and could potentially lead to unpredictable consequences up to and including another border war with China. India’s relevant needs can therefore be met by Russia, which will help it balance China without any serious risks to regional stability. The South Asian state should therefore take Patrushev’s condemnation of the Quad as anti-Russian very seriously and thus reconsider the wisdom of remaining within this US-led military alliance.

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By Andrew Korybko

American political analyst

Tags: Quad, Russia, India, US, China, Balancing.


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China Warns of ‘substantial Damage’ to Relations if Bangladesh Joins US-led Quad Alliance | SOURCE: NEWS 18

Bangladesh flag: For Representation

China has warned Bangladesh against joining the US-led Quad alliance, saying that Dhaka’s participation in the anti-Beijing ”club” would result in ”substantial damage” to bilateral relations. The Quad is an informal grouping of India, the US, Australia and Japan, working against China.

SOURCE: NEWS 18


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Australia Escalated The Hybrid War On BRI At America’s Behest

4 MAY 2021

Australia Escalated The Hybrid War On BRI At America

The Quad is against China in all respects, especially when it comes to military and economic affairs. Canberra’s canceling of Victoria’s two BRI agreements is therefore consistent with this unstated but increasingly obvious strategy.

The Australian federal government recently canceled two Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) deals that the state of Victoria signed with China in 2018 and 2019 as part of its new policy enabling the central authorities to overrule international agreements clinched by lower-level administrative entities. China vowed to respond to this extremely unfriendly move which further worsens their bilateral relations after several years of steady decline due to Australia’s unprovoked actions against the People’s Republic. Examples of the latter prominently include politically meddling in Hong Kong and promoting harmful conspiratorial claims about COVID-19’s origins.

The latest developments amount to a serious escalation in the ongoing Hybrid War on BRI, which Australia arguably committed at its American ally’s behest. The two nations are part of the emerging Quad military bloc in what both countries regard as the “Indo-Pacific”. Plenty of observers have voiced concern that this growing network is aimed at containing China, which is seemingly proven by what just happened. The Quad is against China in all respects, especially when it comes to military and economic affairs. Canberra’s canceling of Victoria’s two BRI agreements is therefore consistent with this unstated but increasingly obvious strategy.

What’s even more disturbing about all of this is that Australia voluntarily joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) last November alongside China and over a dozen other regional nations. The expectation among many, however naive in hindsight, was that Australia would moderate its approach towards China and perhaps enter into a long-overdue rapprochement with its top trade partner. Alas, that doesn’t seem to have much chance of happening now that the country canceled those two BRI deals which were supposed to serve as flagship projects of cooperation between them heralding in a new era of economic cooperation.

American strategists must be delighted that they succeeded in convincing their junior Australian partners to sacrifice their own economic interests out of political solidarity with Washington, albeit on the pretext of so-called “national interests”. Regarding that flimsy justification, which has recently been bandied about with abandon in Australia, it’s vague enough to be used as a pretext for anything actually. The appeal to “national interests” also automatically attracts the support of nationalist elements in society who are programmed to positively respond to anything that the authorities say is in advance of that concept.

Objectively speaking, it’s actually against Australia’s national interests to cancel its BRI deals. For starters, they were agreed to by two internationally recognized governments, albeit Victoria’s being a state one and not federal. This means that abruptly canceling them on a vague pretext harms Australia’s reputation by making it appear unreliable, especially since many suspect that it did so to please its American ally. Secondly, the federal government could have at least in theory attempted to renegotiate parts of these deals if it really had a problem with them instead of just scrapping both of those pacts entirely. This hints at its ulterior motives.

It’s understandable that some countries have complex relations between their state and central governments, especially those nations that practice Western forms of democracy and whose concept of “national interests” could possibly change every few years after the next election. Nevertheless, domestic disputes between administrative entities mustn’t result in international implications like what just happened in terms of greatly harming Chinese-Australian relations. The very fact that this occurred in a country that proudly presents itself as a politically stable model for others proves just how destabilizing democratic systems can sometimes be.

The Australian people must realize that their understanding of “national interests” is being manipulated by some of their authorities and the latter’s foreign allies in America as part of the Hybrid War on BRI, which is a major component of the larger Hybrid War on China. It’s a pity that their objective economic interests are being sacrificed as part of this aggressive scheme. The only ones who will suffer are those same Australian people, many of whom had high hopes about taking their countries’ promising economic ties with China to the next level through BRI. It can only be hoped that their authorities regain their senses and reverse this latest move.

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By Andrew Korybko

American political analyst

Tags: Australia, China, BRI, Quad, US, Hybrid War.


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Russia’s COVID-19 Aid To India Proves Its Reliability

29 APRIL 2021

Russia

Russia’s decision to dispatch emergency COVID-19 aid to India proves how reliable it is in comparison to the South Asian state’s newfound American ally, the latter of which dillydallied while New Delhi urgently pleaded for assistance to help its suffering people survive the latest viral wave that came crashing into the country.

The whole world is watching the latest COVID-19 outbreak in India with serious concern after the country suddenly emerged as the latest epicenter. New Delhi urgently pleaded for assistance from its allies to help its suffering people survive the latest viral wave that came crashing into the South Asian state, but its newfound American ally dillydallied while its historical Russian one rushed to its aid without any preconditions. This contrast of commitment speaks volumes about which of the two sincerely cherishes its ties with the world’s second most populous country, which should hopefully result in a reconsideration of India’s recent strategic priorities.

Up until this year, India was stridently siding with the US on practically all relevant matters apart from its continued commitment to go through with its planned purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems. The South Asian state is a proud member of the US-led Quad and arguably envisions becoming its Asian leader in pursuit of its allies’ shared goal of containing China. The Electoral College’s certification of Joe Biden as the next US President threw a wrench in India’s long-term plans since its strategists anticipated that Trump would come out on top instead. The new reality is such that India doesn’t feel as prioritized by the US as before, hence why it sought to recalibrate its multi-alignment policy in response to this perception.

The end result was that it reached near-simultaneous deals with neighboring adversaries China and Pakistan in February regarding a synchronized disengagement with the former and a ceasefire with the latter. This was followed up by hosting Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov earlier in the month for talks to confirm the strength of their strategic partnership and organize the annual Russia-India Summit between their leaders sometime later this year. Perhaps out of jealous reaction to these developments driven by its hegemonic habits, the US Navy violated India’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) during a so-called “freedom of navigation” operation (FONOP) and sent the message to New Delhi that it can only ever hope to be Washington’s junior partner.

Coupled with growing disappointment in India over both sides’ failure to reach a long-discussed trade deal, the US’ latest dillydallying over its belated decision to dispatch COVID-19 aid to its partner might be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back and gets New Delhi to more meaningfully recalibrate its multi-alignment policy. What’s meant by this is that India now realizes that the US doesn’t even care about its people’s lives since it wouldn’t even take the easy soft power opportunity to be among the first to send relevant assistance to the country. It can’t be known for sure why this was, but it certainly seems to be the case that this was yet another American punishment in response to India’s increasingly independent policies as of late.

By contrast, the only credible gripes that Indians have about Russia is that the latter is more confidently practicing its regional “balancing” act which should at least in theory be complementary with India’s own (which it calls multi-alignment). Unlike the US, the manifestation of Russia’s newfound approach doesn’t endanger any Indian lives nor infringes on the country’s territorial integrity. It also doesn’t consist of unilateral sanctions threats in violation of international law like the US’ ones about the S-400s. Russia is also very eager to clinch a comprehensive trade deal with India, which could even be broadened to include the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAU). The US, on the other hand, is playing political games with its trade talks.

There’s no doubt that so-called “vaccine diplomacy” is nowadays part of International Relations whether states officially recognize it or not, but that doesn’t necessarily have to be a bad thing if it’s proactively practiced and not undertaken with any strings attached. To explain, Russia’s vaccine exports are intended to serve as an opening to comprehensively expand bilateral ties with each of its partners, while the US seemingly withholds such aid for political reasons until its partners either make unilateral concessions or the situation becomes much too scandalous that it can no longer continue such a policy without intense international scrutiny. With the Indian example in mind, Russia’s “vaccine diplomacy” is much more moral than the US’.

This objective observation should give Indian strategists cause to think about whether the current direction of their multi-alignment policy is in line with their country’s long-term national interests or not. Remaining so focused on the American vector of this vision despite being slapped around by the US so shamefully this past month, not to mention in such a dangerous way with respect to Indian lives literally being on the line, arguably isn’t advancing their intended goals since they’ve received nothing other than limited military support in exchange for submitting to America over these past few years. It would therefore be much better if India seriously considers the wisdom of cooperating more closely with Russia in support of the Eurasian Century.

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By Andrew Korybko

American political analyst

Tags: India, Russia, US, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Vaccine Diplomacy, Balancing, Quad.


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SOUTH ASIA

INDIA:

  • President Joe Biden met growing calls in India to provide aid regarding Covid-19. The U.S. action was seen as coming too late for an administration that has sought to elevate the Quad security (partnership that also includes Japan and Australia). With the U.S. dragging its feet in offering India help to combat the world’s worst virus crisis, China is moving to drive a wedge between the democratic security partners.

SOURCE: BNN BLOOMBERG


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ASIA PACIFIC

NEW ZELAND:

  • New Zealand said it would not let the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence alliance — the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand– dictate its dealings with its largest trading partner China, in the latest distancing from the US-led group’s approach to tensions with Beijing.

SOURCE: ALARABIYA NEWS


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Can Russia’s S-400 Sale To India Trigger The Quad’s Collapse?

26 MARCH 2021

Can Russia

The US-led anti-Chinese Quad alliance of itself, Australia, India, and Japan might be on the brink of collapse according to influential BJP ideologue Subramanian Swamy, who warned that Washington might expel New Delhi from this bloc if it goes through with its planned purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems.

One of the most geopolitically consequential blocs of the 21st century is unquestionably the Quad, a US-led anti-Chinese alliance that also includes Australia, India, and Japan. It presents one of the greatest strategic challenges to the emerging Multipolar World Order because of the potential that it has to offset China’s historic rise and therefore the new model of International Relations that it’s bringing to the forefront of global affairs. Many analysts have wondered what could possibly be done to stop the Quad, but most of them have since thrown up their hands in despair and seemingly accepted it as a fait accompli that they’re powerless to prevent. That strategic fatalism might have been a bit too premature, however, after influential BJP ideologue Subramanian Swamy’s public warning on Twitter on Thursday.

Russian publicly financed international media outlet Sputnik reported on his tweet, which read that “I notice none of my facts on Twitter have been proved wrong: 1. China has crossed LAC and occupied our territory. 2. Govt says disengagement has led to PLA withdrawal from Indian side of LAC is false 3. India buying S400 from Russia will lead to US expelling India from QUAD.” The reader should also be reminded that Swamy published a hateful anti-Russian article last October that elicited a very strong condemnation from the Russian Embassy in India at the time. India has the right to conduct its foreign affairs however it so chooses in line with what it describes as its “multi-alignment” strategy, but there should be little question in light of his recent statements that Swamy is seemingly pro-American with his outlook and at the very least unfriendly towards Russia.

This influential figure’s statements are at variance with what the Russian and Indian governments officially regard as their special and privileged strategic partnership that’s recently been experiencing a renaissance over the past few years, especially after Prime Minister Modi attended the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in September 2019 as President Putin’s guest of honor. Despite some bumps in the road in the year and a half since, ties are back on the positive track following Foreign Secretary Shringla’s visit to Moscow last month. Quite clearly, Russian-Indian relations remain strong, which provides a much-needed element of certainty in the midst of what can be described as World War C, or the full-spectrum paradigm-changing processes catalyzed by the international community’s uncoordinated attempt to contain COVID-19.

The US’ repeated threats to sanction India for its planned S-400 purchase from Russia run the risk of complicating American-Indian relations, particularly when it comes to their hitherto close military cooperation in attempting to “contain” China through the Quad. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Modi remains determined to go through with the deal, which speaks of how highly he regards Russia’s role in India’s “multi-alignment” “balancing” act no matter how imperfectly he’s thus far executed it. Swamy’s warning can therefore be interpreted as pressure upon the premier from within his own government, which shows that some influential forces don’t agree with Prime Minister Modi’s strategic direction. They’d do well to reconsider their views though since it’s arguably in all of Eurasia’s interests that India concludes the S-400 deal with Russia.

Swamy might actually be right for once, though much to the detriment of the American-aligned grand strategic vision that he seemingly sympathizes with. The US might not literally expel India from the Quad if it receives Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, but their anti-Chinese military coordination would certainly be adversely affected, especially if America imposes sanctions like it’s repeatedly threatened to do. That, however, would by default strengthen India’s ties with Russia and China, thus providing a much-needed impetus for reviving their trilateral cooperation through through RIC and thereby strengthening both BRICS and the SCO as well. This could in turn accelerate the rise of the Eurasian Century, especially as it was recently articulated by Pakistani officials during last week’s inaugural Islamabad Security Dialogue.

In connection with that, it also deserve mention that ties between India and Pakistan are gradually thawing as a result of recent developments between the two, particularly last month’s surprise ceasefire that continues to hold at the time of this analysis’ publication and earlier reports that the UAE is secretly trying to broker a more comprehensive solution to the UNSC-recognized disputed territory of Kashmir. The resultant reduction of American influence in India in the aftermath of Washington likely going through with its sanctions threats against New Delhi could potentially remove the greatest threat to peace in the region since the US wouldn’t be as powerful as before to divide and rule South Asia by exploiting this unresolved conflict.

In other words, India’s purchase of Russia’s S-400s would be in both of those countries’ interests as well as China’s and Pakistan’s when one considers the larger Eurasian strategic picture. The Quad probably won’t collapse, nor is it to be expected that the US would expel India from this alliance, but the group’s anti-Chinese military capabilities might take a strong hit as New Delhi would be less prone to closely cooperate with Washington in this respect if it becomes victimized by American sanctions for its sovereign decision to go through with its Russian air defense deal. With these interconnected dynamics in mind, observers can therefore rightly describe the S-400 deal as potentially being a grand strategic game-changer provided that India retains the political will to go through with it despite Swamy’s and other influential forces’ efforts to stop it.

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By Andrew Korybko

American political analyst

Tags: Russia, India, US, Sanctions, S-400s, Quad, China, Pakistan, Eurasian Century, Balancing.


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The First-Ever Quad Leadership Summit Confirmed The Bloc’s Anti-Chinese Purpose

15 MARCH 2021

The First-Ever Quad Leadership Summit Confirmed The Bloc

The bloc thought that it could dispel suspicions of its motives by emphasizing that it came together for humanitarian reasons almost two decades ago but that narrative is nothing more than an attempt to deceive the rest of the world.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, popularly known as the Quad, held its first-ever leadership summit on Friday via virtual means. The leaders of the US, Australia, India, and Japan discussed a slew of issues that concern their mutual interests in the broad space that they describe as the Indo-Pacific. The bloc has long been suspected of tacitly harboring anti-Chinese intentions, but its leaders attempted to clarity that this isn’t the entirety of its purpose in their joint statement that was released after their video conference. In fact, they didn’t even directly address China at all, though they did imply that it was discussed during their meeting.

The only indirect reference to China was the joint statement’s claims that its members “will continue to prioritize the role of international law in the maritime domain, particularly as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and facilitate collaboration, including in maritime security, to meet challenges to the rules-based maritime order in the East and South China Seas.” Nevertheless, this is still very significant since it directly affects China’s national security interests in those two bodies of water considering its territorial claims there that are contested by several other countries.

The Quad’s joint statement also pointed out that this bloc was supposedly created after the 2004 tsunami, though without mentioning the growing consensus in their countries over the past few years that it’s actually a platform for attempting to contain China. Their talk about shared interests in the spheres of trade, humanitarian aid, disaster relief, cybersecurity, COVID-19, investment, and other such topics actually seem to be a smokescreen for strengthening coordination between them on these fronts in order to more rigorously compete with China.

Of particular concern is the Quad’s references to a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, “democratic values”, and “territorial integrity”, which can be understood by the larger strategic context as being directed against China. That’s because those countries have repeatedly accused China of allegedly undermining all three of those interests around which the Quad is converging. At face value, the bloc’s claims of ASEAN’s centrality seem innocuous enough but take on a more sinister meaning if one suspects the Quad of trying to court those countries for the purpose of containing China in the South China Sea.

With this in mind, the Quad’s first-ever leadership summit did indeed clarify the bloc’s purpose through its indirect strategic references to containing China, which are patently obvious to those observers that are capable of reading between the lines in the current strategic context. The bloc thought that it could dispel suspicions of its motives by emphasizing that it came together for humanitarian reasons almost two decades ago but that narrative is nothing more than an attempt to deceive the rest of the world. The Quad has always had tacit anti-Chinese intentions, though these don’t need to remain its raison d’etat.

For example, instead of excluding China and aiming to contain it, the Quad could incorporate the People’s Republic into this transregional platform through non-military outreaches focused on trade, investment, infrastructure, COVID-19, climate change, and disaster relief. It’s impossible to contain China, let alone in its home region, which is why the Quad should focus on cooperating with it. The overarching purpose of such outreaches could be to lay the basis for expanding the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which Quad-members Australia and Japan are already part of with China to include the US and India with time.

The Indo-Pacific isn’t “free and open” when China is excluded from the Quad’s emerging transregional integration platform, nor are “democratic values” embraced by refusing to cooperate with it. To the contrary, the Quad is attempting to make the Indo-Pacific increasingly captive and closed in an anti-democratic way which threatens China’s territorial integrity in the East and South China Seas. It’s for this reason why the Quad must radically reconsider its raison d’etat by moving away from its doomed-to-fail attempts to contain China and towards actively cooperating with it instead.

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By Andrew Korybko

American political analyst

Tags: US, India, Japan, Australia, Quad, China, RCEP.


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ASIA PACIFIC

QUAD:

  • The so-called “Quad” -United States, India, Australia and Japan- agreed to pool financing, manufacturing and distribution capacity to send coronavirus vaccines across Asia. India will use its manufacturing capacity to make U.S. vaccines, with financing coming from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation. They want to counter China’s growing vaccination diplomacy in Southeast Asia and around the world. India is the world’s biggest vaccine maker.

SOURCE: REUTERS


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ASIA PACIFIC:

QUAD:

  • The United States, Japan, India and Australia will work together to secure rare earth metals that are essential to the production of electric car motors and other products. The four-nation group, referred to as the “Quad” countries, are due to hold an online summit meeting seen as part of efforts to counterbalance China’s growing economic (and military) power.

SOURCE: REUTERS


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