The EU and Ukrainian leaders were considering the possibility of establishing the EU military training mission as well as further participation of Ukrainian servicemen in the EU foreign missions. The initiative, which directly contradicts the Minsk agreements, will contribute to Ukraine’s militarization as well as the escalation of the Donbass conflict, Russia warned.
Gazprom began supplying gas to Hungary through the Balkan Stream gas pipeline and pipelines in South-Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Kiev announced its disappointment with the contract and promised to contact the European Commission to provide an assessment of its compliance with European energy legislation.
Russia is manipulating gas prices to force EU concessions on energy security, Ukraine has warned, adding that Russia is really manipulating prices to make them use Nord Stream 2 (Russia’s new gas pipeline to Germany) to stabilise the prices’. Russia is pushing to operate the pipeline as its own monopoly, harming EU energy security by enabling it to cut gas to Western allies such as Poland and Ukraine in future.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said relations between Ukraine and Russia should be restored as soon as possible. The preparations for a meeting between President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are proceeding “at the highest level.”
Poland & Ukraine, Not Afghanistan, Were The First US Allies To Be Abandoned By Biden
19 AUGUST 2021
The writing was on the wall this entire time that Biden was actually implementing a fair share of Trump’s foreign policy vision related to trading away his “allies” interests in pursuit of the “greater good” connected to more actively “containing” China in the Asia-Pacific.
The world is talking about the next US allies to be abandoned by President Biden after he shamefully hung his Afghan ones out to dry during America’s panicked retreat from the country. Some commentators believe that Ukraine might be next, but in reality, it and Poland were actually the first US allies whose interests were betrayed in pursuit of the so-called “greater good” despite Biden’s promises that he wouldn’t conduct his country’s foreign policy in the Machiavellian way that Trump did. I’ve been chronicling this for some time, but for those who haven’t closely followed my work over the past few months, here are my most relevant analyses accompanied by a concise summary of each:
Ukraine provoked hostilities in Donbass in a desperate attempt to remain relevant to the new US administration at the behest of some of the anti-Russian members of its permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) who wanted to sabotage Biden’s behind-the-scenes outreaches to Russia.
Germany has been actively working as America’s “Lead From Behind” proxy for overthrowing the conservative-nationalist Polish government through HybridWar means connected to Berlin’s backing of its neighbor’s Color Revolution movement.
Russia didn’t fall for the trap laid out for it by hostile elements in the American “deep state”, though considerable credit for this somewhat surprising de-escalation also goes to Biden since he didn’t make matters worse like many predicted that he would at the time.
Poland was shocked by Biden’s decision to waive most of the US’ Nord Stream II sanctions, but it should have seen this coming since the moment he stepped into office and actively begun diversifying its foreign policy instead of remaining entirely dependent on America’s “good graces”.
I predicted that the US would “compromise” on the interests of some of its allies like Poland and Ukraine in pursuit of the “greater good” of pragmatically repairing relations with Russia so as to focus more of its efforts on actively “containing” China in the Asia-Pacific.
It then became increasingly obvious that Poland and the US have some irreconcilable grand strategic differences that far surpass their common military interests vis-a-vis Russia, but the aspiring Central European hegemon had yet to make any decisive moves to recalibrate its foreign policy in response.
To preemptively thwart Poland from doing anything dramatic that could bolster its strategic independence, the US went ahead with their prior “missile defense” plans, which served the purpose of keeping Poland in its clutches and also misleading that country’s leadership into thinking that the US was still their “trusted” ally.
Germany proxy Donald Tusk escalated the Hybrid War on Poland by claiming that the country’s viciously Russophobic grey cardinal was secretly Russian President Putin’s puppet, which preemptively thwarted his target’s plans to claim the same about him following his return to the country to lead the Color Revolution.
In the face of such increased Hybrid War pressure against it, the most pragmatic thing that Poland could do is clinch a so-called “non-aggression” pact with Russia in their overlapping “spheres of influence” in order to focus more of its security services’ efforts on defending itself from the joint US-German regime change campaign.
As unexpected as it was for most observers to acknowledge, Ukraine’s US-controlled puppet government actually began making serious moves to use China as a “balancing” force against America, which should have inspired Poland to follow suit as a means of showing the US how dissatisfied it is with the ongoing Hybrid War.
Poland’s lack of resolve in defending itself from the joint US-German Hybrid War only served to embolden its nominal “allies” to intensify their regime change campaign, which threatened to make matters much worse for its beleaguered conservative-nationalist government.
Poland and Russia are interestingly in the same boat vis-a-vis the West since the latter is pressuring both of them due to their conservative-nationalist values, which Warsaw has yet to realize and thus explains why it’s still in a state of shock after its so-called “allies” so decisively turned against it.
Ukraine’s response to America’s strategic betrayal of its interests hasn’t been to pragmatically explore a possible rapprochement with Russia like it should have done if its leadership had any wisdom but to counterproductively double down on its Russophobic policies.
The combination of US-German Hybrid War pressure and the unexpected migrant crisis coming from Belarus might finally cause Poland to rethink its self-defeating regional policy of functioning as America’s anti-Russian puppet after receiving literally no rewards for this role nor relief from the regime change pressure upon it.
Having indisputably established that Poland and Ukraine were the first US allies to be abandoned under Biden, it’s now time to talk a little bit more about the latter’s predicament. President Zelensky plans to finally meet his American counterpart at the end of the month, but many observers are wondering why it’s even taken so long. One possible reason other than the US leader’s deliberate mistreatment of his country’s ally is that he’s simply embarrassed because of the slew of scandals connecting him to that country such as the Burisma one with his son Hunter and Biden’s bargain with Poroshenko to fire former General Prosecutor Shokin who was investigating the first-mentioned scandal.
Biden also wanted Zelensky to bend over and accept that America was “compromising” on Ukraine’s interests as part of the “greater good” related to repairing relations with Russia in order to more actively refocus the US’ efforts on “containing” China. The Ukrainian leader understandably felt betrayed by Biden and began to lose faith in America’s reliability as an ally, which explains why his country started reaching out more to China lately. Even so, nothing that Kiev might do can fully protect its interests if Washington cuts a deal with Moscow over Eastern Ukraine like some commentators now speculate might be in the cards as part of their gradual rapprochement.
As for Poland, it too has been caught with its pants down by Biden’s pragmatic deal-making with Russia and also doesn’t have any realistic means to defend its interests in response to them being “traded away” by the American leader. Unlike Ukraine whose conservative-nationalist values are supported by the US because they take the extreme form of ethno-fascism that can be weaponized to keep Russian influence there at bay, the Polish government’s comparatively more mild values are seen as a threat to the entire Western project because of the possibility that they can influence other EU members and thus undermine the US’ plans to have Germany’s liberal-globalist ideology dominate the continent in order to control its countries by proxy.
Poland and Ukraine are therefore at America’s mercy. Their interests were betrayed by their “ally” even before Biden abandoned his country’s Afghan “allies”. Observers should become more aware of this fact since it shows that nobody should have been surprised by what just happened in that South Asian country. The writing was on the wall this entire time that Biden was actually implementing a fair share of Trump’s foreign policy vision related to trading away his “allies” interests in pursuit of the “greater good” connected to more actively “containing” China in the Asia-Pacific. It remains to be seen how much more “collateral damage” the US’ “allies” will suffer as a result of this policy, but there’s no longer any denying that such a Machiavellian policy exists.
Ukraine is concerned over the intentions of the Russian Federation to deploy nuclear weapon in the temporarily occupied Crimea as Deputy Prime Minister for the Temporarily Occupied Territories of the country Oleksiy Reznikov stated. Russia has already occupied the Azov Sea in fact and totally changed the balance in the Black Sea, according to Reznikov.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said that Ukrainian power structures and authorities transport militants and armaments into Belarus. The Belarusian leader pointed out that Minsk tightly shut down the border with Ukraine.
The US-German Hybrid War Against Poland Is Intensifying
26 JULY 2021
Poland has come under intensified Hybrid War attack by the US and Germany after its hoped-for Baltic Pipe’s construction has been delayed by their Danish ally, the influential Washington Post published a scathing editorial imploring American decision makers to push back against Poland’s plans to regain control of a US-owned anti-government broadcaster, and it became official that the US and Germany cut a deal with Russia over Nord Stream II.
The geostrategic situation is going from bad to worse for Poland after it came under intensified Hybrid War attack by the US and Germany at the end of July. I already chronicled the reasons for its increasingly disadvantageous position in a recent piece here which lists eight of my other relevant works on this subject. They all boil down to Poland remaining blind to the rapidly changing regional reality whereby the US and Russia are actively negotiating a so-called “non-aggression pact” which will occur at the expense of Warsaw’s national interests as it understands them to be. Germany is party to this process and hopes to take advantage of it to submit Poland to its envisioned continental hegemony. All three Great Powers are also opposed to the Warsaw-led “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) that the former Trump Administration enthusiastically supported as a pivotal balancing force in European affairs but which the Biden one regards as geopolitically obstructive to its goals.
What recently happened is that Poland’s hoped-for Baltic Pipe’s construction was delayed by the US’ and Germany’s Danish ally. This powerfully impacts on the country’s energy security policy and will therefore compel it to continue relying on cheaper but more “politically sensitive” (from the perspective of the Polish leadership) Russian supplies. Just prior to that, the influential Washington Post published a scathing editorial imploring American decision makers to push back against Poland’s plans to regain control of a US-owned anti-government broadcaster that’s been stirring Colo Revolution unrest in the country. They ominously concluded their article by writing that “The United States must use all the leverage it can muster to ensure that independent television news in the country survives.” Finally, it became official that the US and Germany cut a deal with Russia over Nord Stream II, which Poland regards as being at the expense of its national interests.
Astute students of history might rightly compare this to the infamous “Western Betrayal” of the past century, though the consequences have yet to be as geopolitically dramatic as back then. Nevertheless, Poland is obviously at risk of losing its hard-earned sovereignty if the joint US-German Color Revolution succeeds, the country returns to being Berlin’s vassal, and the government is compelled by circumstances to finally re-engage with Russia but as a junior partner instead of the equal one that it deserves to be. There would be no need to partition Poland again since it’s now an almost entirely “ethnically pure” state apart from the growing mass of Ukrainian migrants in recent years and all foreign influence (American, German, and Russian) in the country could be managed through Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO) if it returns to power. Poland used to be the subject of regional geopolitics during the Trump years, but it’s now returning to being an object under Biden.
The tragedy is that all of this was avoidable and so obvious since the start of the year. The moment that Biden’s liberal-globalist forces entered the White House, Poland’s conservative-nationalist government should have known that the German Hybrid War against them would be intensified due to Washington’s and Berlin’s shared ideological visions that contradict Warsaw’s own. The ruling Law & Justice Party (PiS) should have also immediately entered into secret talks with Russia upon learning through the media earlier this year that Biden planned to meet with Putin. Poland and Russia could have begun negotiating their own “non-aggression pact” in Belarus & Ukraine in order to boost one another’s strategic negotiating leverage vis-a-vis the US, which could have also prevented Poland from being forced to respond to whatever the US, Russia, and Germany agreed to behind its back like ultimately happened.
It’s still not too late for Poland to do this, though its own negotiating position is greatly diminished now that the Baltic Pipe has been unexpectedly delayed by the US’ and Germany’s Danish ally (likely as part of the larger US-Russian “non-aggression pact”). Russia is also keenly aware of how increasingly desperate Poland is becoming in the strategic sense so the Kremlin might demand more concessions from Warsaw when it comes to the Central European leader’s envisioned “sphere of influence” over their shared Belarusian and Ukrainian borderlands than if they began such negotiations a few months back for example. One possible way to improve its leverage in this respect would be if Poland simultaneously reached out to China as a balancing force against the US just like neighboring Ukraine recently did, became an equally important economic bridge between East and West, and then used this newfound geo-economic role to entice Russia to give it a more “balanced” deal.
Whatever it ends up doing, it’s obvious that PiS must do something to relieve the joint US-German pressure upon it and then refocus its efforts on thwarting their plans to neutralize Poland’s sovereignty. Just like fellow NATO ally Turkey pragmatically turned East in the face of unprecedented pressure from the West a few years back in order to survive the regime change onslaught against it at the time, so too must Poland do the same lest it risk irreversibly losing everything. It might be very difficult for PiS to understand for “politically correct” reasons, but its American patron just backstabbed it and sold Poland out to Germany. The end is certainly nigh unless Poland prioritizes an urgent Eastern Pivot towards Russia and China in order to safeguard its sovereignty and bolster its “Democratic Security” capabilities for fending off the joint US-German Hybrid War. If PiS fails to do so, then Poland will be forced to submit to German hegemony, from which it’ll never escape.
The European Union extended the economic sectoral sanctions against Russia for six months, for not ensuring the full implementation of the Minsk agreements, drawn-up by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which consisted of representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE.
Are Pakistani-Ukrainian Relations Problematic For Russia?
6 JULY 2021
Pakistani-Ukrainian relations, and in particular the possible impact that Islamabad’s observance of the Sea Breeze 2021 exercises might have on its ties with Moscow, are a non-issue for Russian-Pakistani relations.
There’s been some discussion on social media in recent days about whether Pakistani-Ukrainian relations are problematic for Russia. Those who regard them as such believe that Islamabad should keep Kiev at arm’s length considering that Foreign Minister Qureshi said during a call with his Russian counterpart last month that “relations with Russia are a key priority for Pakistan’s foreign policy.” They’re concerned that Russia might become suspicious of Pakistani strategic intentions, particularly its growing military cooperation with Ukraine, and that this might decelerate the pace of their ongoing rapprochement. Proponents of this interpretation are especially worried about Pakistan’s decision to observe NATO’s Sea Breeze 2021 exercises in the Black Sea.
These well-intended individuals’ views are understandable since they feel very strongly about the positive trajectory of Russian-Pakistani relations and therefore don’t want anything to offset this exciting geostrategic development. Nevertheless, there’s arguably nothing for them to be seriously concerned about. Pakistani-Ukrainian military cooperation chiefly concerns Islamabad’s arms procurement program and not the export of equipment to Kiev that could potentially tip the scales in its favor against Moscow. Moreover, Pakistan’s observance of the ongoing NATO naval drills is consistent with its status as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA). Russia’s military cooperation with India is far more meaningful yet that hasn’t harmed its ties with Pakistan.
Russian-Pakistani relations have recently matured to the point where each country’s ties with third parties don’t negatively effect their partnership. If anything, sometimes the complicated state of their relations with other countries could actually serve to intensify their relations. This might be the case when it comes to US-Pakistani relations. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s (PMIK) principled refusal to host US bases, meet with the CIA Director, and participate in any more of America’s wars must have been regarded very positively in Moscow. Russia also likely took note of the fact that US President Joe Biden has yet to speak with PMIK despite being in office for nearly half a year already. The American leader seems to be shunning his Pakistani counterpart.
The increasingly complicated nature of US-Pakistani relations is occurring in parallel with the improvement of Russian-Pakistani ones, but this doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re connected. Rather, the first-mentioned is due to Pakistan’s refusal to continue behaving as an American proxy while the latter is the result of Islamabad deciding to diversify its foreign partnerships in order to avoid any disproportionate strategic dependence on a single country like used to be the case with the US. US-Pakistani relations didn’t worsen because of the Russian-Pakistani rapprochement and Islamabad’s growing ties with Moscow are independent of its relations with Washington. Even so, it’s natural that Russian-Pakistani relations will intensify against this backdrop.
Returning back to the topic of this analysis, Pakistani-Ukrainian relations and in particular the possible impact that Islamabad’s observance of the Sea Breeze 2021 exercises might have on its ties with Moscow, this is presently a non-issue for Russian-Pakistani relations. Russia acknowledges Pakistan’s right as a sovereign state to engage in “military diplomacy” with whatever other countries that it wants to as long as these efforts aren’t directed against Moscow. Pakistani-Ukrainian military relations are aimed at procuring more equipment for the former’s armed forces. In addition, observing those earlier mentioned NATO drills is meant to maintain cordial relations with the US and NATO considering Pakistan’s formal military relationship with them.
Far more important to Russia is the practical state of US-Pakistani relations, which is currently very complicated. Moscow would obviously prefer for Washington not to retain any regional military bases following its impending withdrawal from Afghanistan by September 11th. Although it has no influence over Pakistan’s decision on the matter, it must certainly be pleased with PMIK’s independent foreign policy course. Any speculative Russian concerns about the impact of Pakistani-Ukrainian relations, especially their military dimension, pale in comparison to the importance of US-Pakistani relations’ presently complicated nature. That being the case, those who’ve recently been worried about Russian-Pakistani relations have nothing to fear.