Chengxin Lithium has applied for the rights to two lithium deposits in Ukraine that are up for auction, in a move that would give the Chinese company a foothold in the European lithium industry. The company, which makes lithium chemicals for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, said it would build a lithium plant in Indonesia and is investing in mining projects in Argentina and Zimbabwe.
Ukraine is concerned over the intentions of the Russian Federation to deploy nuclear weapon in the temporarily occupied Crimea as Deputy Prime Minister for the Temporarily Occupied Territories of the country Oleksiy Reznikov stated. Russia has already occupied the Azov Sea in fact and totally changed the balance in the Black Sea, according to Reznikov.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said that Ukrainian power structures and authorities transport militants and armaments into Belarus. The Belarusian leader pointed out that Minsk tightly shut down the border with Ukraine.
The US-German Hybrid War Against Poland Is Intensifying
26 JULY 2021
Poland has come under intensified Hybrid War attack by the US and Germany after its hoped-for Baltic Pipe’s construction has been delayed by their Danish ally, the influential Washington Post published a scathing editorial imploring American decision makers to push back against Poland’s plans to regain control of a US-owned anti-government broadcaster, and it became official that the US and Germany cut a deal with Russia over Nord Stream II.
The geostrategic situation is going from bad to worse for Poland after it came under intensified Hybrid War attack by the US and Germany at the end of July. I already chronicled the reasons for its increasingly disadvantageous position in a recent piece here which lists eight of my other relevant works on this subject. They all boil down to Poland remaining blind to the rapidly changing regional reality whereby the US and Russia are actively negotiating a so-called “non-aggression pact” which will occur at the expense of Warsaw’s national interests as it understands them to be. Germany is party to this process and hopes to take advantage of it to submit Poland to its envisioned continental hegemony. All three Great Powers are also opposed to the Warsaw-led “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) that the former Trump Administration enthusiastically supported as a pivotal balancing force in European affairs but which the Biden one regards as geopolitically obstructive to its goals.
What recently happened is that Poland’s hoped-for Baltic Pipe’s construction was delayed by the US’ and Germany’s Danish ally. This powerfully impacts on the country’s energy security policy and will therefore compel it to continue relying on cheaper but more “politically sensitive” (from the perspective of the Polish leadership) Russian supplies. Just prior to that, the influential Washington Post published a scathing editorial imploring American decision makers to push back against Poland’s plans to regain control of a US-owned anti-government broadcaster that’s been stirring Colo Revolution unrest in the country. They ominously concluded their article by writing that “The United States must use all the leverage it can muster to ensure that independent television news in the country survives.” Finally, it became official that the US and Germany cut a deal with Russia over Nord Stream II, which Poland regards as being at the expense of its national interests.
Astute students of history might rightly compare this to the infamous “Western Betrayal” of the past century, though the consequences have yet to be as geopolitically dramatic as back then. Nevertheless, Poland is obviously at risk of losing its hard-earned sovereignty if the joint US-German Color Revolution succeeds, the country returns to being Berlin’s vassal, and the government is compelled by circumstances to finally re-engage with Russia but as a junior partner instead of the equal one that it deserves to be. There would be no need to partition Poland again since it’s now an almost entirely “ethnically pure” state apart from the growing mass of Ukrainian migrants in recent years and all foreign influence (American, German, and Russian) in the country could be managed through Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO) if it returns to power. Poland used to be the subject of regional geopolitics during the Trump years, but it’s now returning to being an object under Biden.
The tragedy is that all of this was avoidable and so obvious since the start of the year. The moment that Biden’s liberal-globalist forces entered the White House, Poland’s conservative-nationalist government should have known that the German Hybrid War against them would be intensified due to Washington’s and Berlin’s shared ideological visions that contradict Warsaw’s own. The ruling Law & Justice Party (PiS) should have also immediately entered into secret talks with Russia upon learning through the media earlier this year that Biden planned to meet with Putin. Poland and Russia could have begun negotiating their own “non-aggression pact” in Belarus & Ukraine in order to boost one another’s strategic negotiating leverage vis-a-vis the US, which could have also prevented Poland from being forced to respond to whatever the US, Russia, and Germany agreed to behind its back like ultimately happened.
It’s still not too late for Poland to do this, though its own negotiating position is greatly diminished now that the Baltic Pipe has been unexpectedly delayed by the US’ and Germany’s Danish ally (likely as part of the larger US-Russian “non-aggression pact”). Russia is also keenly aware of how increasingly desperate Poland is becoming in the strategic sense so the Kremlin might demand more concessions from Warsaw when it comes to the Central European leader’s envisioned “sphere of influence” over their shared Belarusian and Ukrainian borderlands than if they began such negotiations a few months back for example. One possible way to improve its leverage in this respect would be if Poland simultaneously reached out to China as a balancing force against the US just like neighboring Ukraine recently did, became an equally important economic bridge between East and West, and then used this newfound geo-economic role to entice Russia to give it a more “balanced” deal.
Whatever it ends up doing, it’s obvious that PiS must do something to relieve the joint US-German pressure upon it and then refocus its efforts on thwarting their plans to neutralize Poland’s sovereignty. Just like fellow NATO ally Turkey pragmatically turned East in the face of unprecedented pressure from the West a few years back in order to survive the regime change onslaught against it at the time, so too must Poland do the same lest it risk irreversibly losing everything. It might be very difficult for PiS to understand for “politically correct” reasons, but its American patron just backstabbed it and sold Poland out to Germany. The end is certainly nigh unless Poland prioritizes an urgent Eastern Pivot towards Russia and China in order to safeguard its sovereignty and bolster its “Democratic Security” capabilities for fending off the joint US-German Hybrid War. If PiS fails to do so, then Poland will be forced to submit to German hegemony, from which it’ll never escape.
The European Union extended the economic sectoral sanctions against Russia for six months, for not ensuring the full implementation of the Minsk agreements, drawn-up by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which consisted of representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE.
Are Pakistani-Ukrainian Relations Problematic For Russia?
6 JULY 2021
Pakistani-Ukrainian relations, and in particular the possible impact that Islamabad’s observance of the Sea Breeze 2021 exercises might have on its ties with Moscow, are a non-issue for Russian-Pakistani relations.
There’s been some discussion on social media in recent days about whether Pakistani-Ukrainian relations are problematic for Russia. Those who regard them as such believe that Islamabad should keep Kiev at arm’s length considering that Foreign Minister Qureshi said during a call with his Russian counterpart last month that “relations with Russia are a key priority for Pakistan’s foreign policy.” They’re concerned that Russia might become suspicious of Pakistani strategic intentions, particularly its growing military cooperation with Ukraine, and that this might decelerate the pace of their ongoing rapprochement. Proponents of this interpretation are especially worried about Pakistan’s decision to observe NATO’s Sea Breeze 2021 exercises in the Black Sea.
These well-intended individuals’ views are understandable since they feel very strongly about the positive trajectory of Russian-Pakistani relations and therefore don’t want anything to offset this exciting geostrategic development. Nevertheless, there’s arguably nothing for them to be seriously concerned about. Pakistani-Ukrainian military cooperation chiefly concerns Islamabad’s arms procurement program and not the export of equipment to Kiev that could potentially tip the scales in its favor against Moscow. Moreover, Pakistan’s observance of the ongoing NATO naval drills is consistent with its status as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA). Russia’s military cooperation with India is far more meaningful yet that hasn’t harmed its ties with Pakistan.
Russian-Pakistani relations have recently matured to the point where each country’s ties with third parties don’t negatively effect their partnership. If anything, sometimes the complicated state of their relations with other countries could actually serve to intensify their relations. This might be the case when it comes to US-Pakistani relations. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s (PMIK) principled refusal to host US bases, meet with the CIA Director, and participate in any more of America’s wars must have been regarded very positively in Moscow. Russia also likely took note of the fact that US President Joe Biden has yet to speak with PMIK despite being in office for nearly half a year already. The American leader seems to be shunning his Pakistani counterpart.
The increasingly complicated nature of US-Pakistani relations is occurring in parallel with the improvement of Russian-Pakistani ones, but this doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re connected. Rather, the first-mentioned is due to Pakistan’s refusal to continue behaving as an American proxy while the latter is the result of Islamabad deciding to diversify its foreign partnerships in order to avoid any disproportionate strategic dependence on a single country like used to be the case with the US. US-Pakistani relations didn’t worsen because of the Russian-Pakistani rapprochement and Islamabad’s growing ties with Moscow are independent of its relations with Washington. Even so, it’s natural that Russian-Pakistani relations will intensify against this backdrop.
Returning back to the topic of this analysis, Pakistani-Ukrainian relations and in particular the possible impact that Islamabad’s observance of the Sea Breeze 2021 exercises might have on its ties with Moscow, this is presently a non-issue for Russian-Pakistani relations. Russia acknowledges Pakistan’s right as a sovereign state to engage in “military diplomacy” with whatever other countries that it wants to as long as these efforts aren’t directed against Moscow. Pakistani-Ukrainian military relations are aimed at procuring more equipment for the former’s armed forces. In addition, observing those earlier mentioned NATO drills is meant to maintain cordial relations with the US and NATO considering Pakistan’s formal military relationship with them.
Far more important to Russia is the practical state of US-Pakistani relations, which is currently very complicated. Moscow would obviously prefer for Washington not to retain any regional military bases following its impending withdrawal from Afghanistan by September 11th. Although it has no influence over Pakistan’s decision on the matter, it must certainly be pleased with PMIK’s independent foreign policy course. Any speculative Russian concerns about the impact of Pakistani-Ukrainian relations, especially their military dimension, pale in comparison to the importance of US-Pakistani relations’ presently complicated nature. That being the case, those who’ve recently been worried about Russian-Pakistani relations have nothing to fear.
Ukraine and the United States will start a military exercise involving more than 30 countries in the Black Sea and southern Ukraine, despite Russian calls to cancel the drills. The exercise follows a rise in tensions between NATO and Moscow, which said it had fired warning shots and dropped bombs in the path of a British warship to chase it out of Black Sea waters off the coast of Crimea.
Moscow intends to hold consultations with Ankara soon, at which it will raise the issue of cooperation between the Ukrainian and Turkish naval forces and the issue of attracting Kyiv to NATO, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Last Monday, the final statement at the NATO summit in Brussels confirmed that Ukraine could become a member of the alliance in the future.
The Kremlin said that Moscow was worried by talk of a road map for Ukraine to join NATO and described the “problem” of the military bloc as one of Russia’s “red lines.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the remarks a day after the presidents of Russia and the United States met for a summit in Geneva.
NATO leaders are gathering in Brussels to hold their first in-person summit since 2018, with Russia and China high on the agenda, according to the alliance’s top official. The summit will be a great opportunity for NATO leaders to exchange views on these issues ahead of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Geneva slated for Wednesday.